Our Climate Model Methodology

Uncover the methodology and process behind the Urban Climate Damage Model.

QUALITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

Developing Impact Chains

Risk results from an interaction between vulnerability, exposure, and hazard. Adapted from the Impact and Vulnerability Analysis of Vital Infrastructures and built-up Areas (IVAVIA), impact chains conceptualise the impacts and factors relevant to measure potential climate impact.

Co-Creation Sessions

Co-creation and participatory sessions lead the process of developing the model. This ensures that stakeholders are invested and represented in the approach of assessing climate damage.

LOW EMISSIONS & EFFICIENCY

Identifying Indicators

Indicators include which variables are important in mediating the relationship between hazard and risk. Indicators are created to quantify the different risk components.

QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

Data Acquisition and Geoprocessing

Upon acquiring data, translating qualitative impact chains into quantified values requires using spatial mapping software to calculate and geoprocess it.

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WEIGHTING RELATIVE COSTS

Using a 'cost factor', stakeholders weight indicators and exposed assets based on cost induced in the event of a hazard.

NORMALISATION AND AGGREGATION

Normalising data allows multiple criteria to be comparable. Using specific formulas, aggregation of exposure, hazard and vulnerability variables is calculated in the Python environment.

DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS

Optimisation

A data envelopment analysis is a decision-making tool based on programming of relative efficiencies of units. The DEA model is built in Python using the Gurobi Optimiser tool.

Weighting

The power of DEA analysis is in its ability to weight and define scenarios for context specific decision making. Specific impacts or hazards can be prioritised in decision-making.

Efficiency Optimisation

The data envelopment analysis compares every street or neighbourhood within the model with every single other one and repeats the process. It benchmarks the more climate adaptive neighbourhoods.

DATA VISUALISATION

Areas

The results of the data analysis is visualised in several ways depending on the type of understanding needed. This heat map allows for a effective comparison of many areas across several risks.

Hazards

Drought, rainfall and heat stress can be separately visualised for a more in-depth analysis of a single hazard and their multiple impacts on the city.

Vulnerability

Alluvial flow diagrams allow for a thorough and deep assessment of the risk components of a single area or neighbourhood.